"What's so difficult about that?" I could have bitten my tongue almost as soon as I said this. When will I learn that opening my mouth when in the company of friends, especially when it's a group of them like today, is a sure recipe for disaster?
"Ah! So what IS progress, O wise one?" "Well...I suppose if success is achieving your goals, then progress is when you advance towards your goals." "Ah! So easy, is it not? Tell me, does improving security in a Society count as a goal? That when Society advances towards lesser possibility of riots or terrorist activity, it's progress?" "Of course it is." Was this guy an idiot? Who wants a Society where you are afraid to go out for fear of being beaten up or blown to bits? "So, increasing security is progress? Even if that means security agencies monitoring all your conversations, your financial transactions, your social media interactions? After all, better information helps to nip terrorist activities in the bud. Even if it means that the Government restricts what you can say and where you can say it? So that hate speech does not lead to riots?" Huh? Now what? I mean, yeah, security is great but... "I think you are being unfair there. Of course there is need to balance..." "And exactly what is the right balance? Ask the guys who want security and they will want to ensure absolute security and, after that, if there is some leeway for privacy and freedom of speech, they may grant that. The other guys would want personal liberties inviolate and the Government should somehow find a way to also ensure security without compromising on that. So, exactly where is the consensus?" I interjected. "Forget that, politics is always messy. In economics and business there must be real clarity." THAT was like throwing a stone into a hornets' nest. "Yeah, right! If business finds it more efficient to use robots or AI, or outsource, is that progress?" "Course it is." "So, it is Ok if people get thrown out of jobs and starve? Nice." "Of course not! But why are you assuming that..." "I am NOT assuming. The point is YOU are assuming that improved efficiency of business will happen without any distress. That there is no choice being made there." Another guy chimes in. "Where do you deploy resources? To produce goods and services that people with money want, or to produce food for starving people who cannot pay for it?" This was nonsense. I mean morbid speculation of this sort. I said as much. THAT set off a perfect cacophony of voices. Everyone screaming at once. "Really? Tell me, do you know of any system, yet, where a minimal level of food, clothing, shelter, medicare and education has been guaranteed to every citizen regardless of their earning ability? To ensure that resources do not get diverted away from satisfying the minimal needs?" "Yeah! But that would need, then, population control. If you guarantee all the basic needs to everyone, without limiting family sizes...And mandatory population control? That opens out a whole new can of worms." "Every time anyone speaks of possibilities, people cry it down as dystopian speculation. Which is why nothing gets done till it becomes a crisis. Take climate change for example..." "That's another thing. Leave it to business chasing profits, and you will soon have a desert for a planet." "The market economy will take care..." I interjected, weakly. "Yeah! Once we said God will take care. NOW we say the markets will take care of it. As though the Market is some sort of fairy godmother..." "The only thing markets do is take care of goods and services. Not of the environment." "Not even that. It is a long time since we had that so-called perfect competition that is supposed to make markets work. If it ever existed. Pharma carves out monopolies with its patents. Most business is turning big business, oligopolies if not monopolies. And now you have the e-business guys who seem intent on becoming monopsonies as well as monopolies - a combination that Adam Smith may not even have dreamed of..." I was feeling dizzy. What was all this? I mean, one doomsday theorist was enough to keep me in nightmares for months. And here was a total army of them.Looked like this social progress thing was too messy. Too many conflicting goals, no real agreement on any non-negotiable minimal levels for each of those goals, everyone wanting the maximum possible for their own goals and the devil take the hindmost...in short, humans behaving like humans, irrational and grasping. And, in all probability, the rich and powerful getting their way as they always do. But there was that one thing that would be rational...
"Forget all that, guys." I said. "Scientific progress..."Again that nasty chorus. Really!
"Nonsense. The research that gets paid for gets done. From all reports, especially in medicine, the results that get paid for get reported." "What scientific progress? Are our most important goals in Science to find out the origin of life or the Universe? Finding out habitable planets in our galaxy? Of determining the right Grand Unification Theory?" What was all this gobbledygook? Of course, I was thinking about important scientific progress in AI/ML, even perhaps, you know, those space habitats around the sun when Earth gets too difficult to breathe in... "Of course, he is thinking about scientific goals like innovations that will slash the price of his smartphone in half, get him Netflix for free...important things like that." "I'm sure that, for him, society is certainly progressing and fast. After all, we certainly are progressing towards the day when you can get all your needs satisfied without getting out of bed. That would suit him absolutely." Should I be happy? I don't know. I would have been, but for that crack about 'monopsony and monopoly'. I mean, if the same guy ends up being the only guy suppliers can trade through and customers can buy from, even if he delivers everything to my bed, will he deliver it to me at prices I can afford? I sure hope so. These guys, though...they have given me enough nightmares to last me years!
